Holy Roman Empire
Chapter 245: Add Fuel to the Fire

After confirming the outbreak of the plague in Constantinople, Pélissier did not delay and immediately reported to the French government.

Palace of Versailles

Napoleon III was in a very bad mood. He had just received news of the plague outbreak in Crimea, and now Constantinople had also succumbed to the epidemic.

He wasn’t interested in where the virus came from; what troubled him now was what to do next.

The situation in Crimea could still be managed; with such a vast area, it was possible to disperse and isolate the affected zones to control the spread of the epidemic.

But what about Constantinople? Now reduced to a small area with high population density, and still engaged in street warfare with the Russians, how could the epidemic there be controlled?

Minister of War Arnaud spoke up, “Your Majesty, the outbreak of the plague in Constantinople likely means worsening conditions at the front. Sending reinforcements now would be like throwing our men into the fire. The brave soldiers of France might defeat the Russians, but only God can combat the plague.”

Since the beginning of the Battle of Constantinople, the French army had been reinforcing its troops almost every month, not so much as reinforcements but more to replenish the frontline troops and replace some of the decimated units.

Napoleon III had managed this aspect quite well, avoiding the overuse of any single unit. Even in purging dissenters, he typically found excuses to transfer them rather than resorting to mass executions.

The war had reached a point where the French government had long desired to stop, but political factors prevented Napoleon III from compromising.

Now, Arnaud was subtly reminding Napoleon III that he needed to either replace an excuse to abandon Constantinople or organize more troops for a decisive battle against the Russians. In any case, he could no longer continue with the tactic of dragging out the conflict with piecemeal reinforcements.

With his high political acumen, Napoleon III quickly grasped the situation and even thought ahead, urgently saying:

“Immediately have the Foreign Ministry negotiate with the Ottoman Empire and ask them to abandon Constantinople. In return, we will ensure that their interests in other regions are protected.

We can jointly pressure them with the British. At this moment, I believe the British government will make a wise decision.

Let the news of the negotiations leak out, suggesting that we aim to reclaim this holy city for the Christian world. Get the Catholic Church involved to help build momentum.

Order Pélissier at the front line to, by any means necessary, ensure the Russians are also infected with the plague!”

At that time, science had not yet taken deep root in the hearts and minds of the people. If action was not taken quickly, the Russians could seize the opportunity to launch a political offensive, and the consequences of that would be unimaginable.

If the plague only broke out among the allied forces while the Russians remained unscathed, the subsequent war would be unnecessary; political maneuvers alone could doom the British and French governments.

The phrase “God shall punish those who aid the heathens” would likely instantly shatter the morale of the troops at the front. Whether Protestant or Catholic, they all worship God.

Constantinople, as a holy site of the Christian world, is imbued with a deep religious significance. Emotionally speaking, no one is keen on aiding the Ottoman Empire in religious terms.

If the public back home were to learn that the government is being punished by God for helping the heathens, would one even need to consider the consequences?

Napoleon III dares not test the devoutness of the French people’s faith. Compared to this dreadful outcome, the importance of the Ottoman Empire as an ally pales into insignificance.

“Better for you to die than me” — to survive a potential political storm, the interests of the Ottoman Empire must be sacrificed.

……

As it turned out, Napoleon III’s worries were unfounded. The plague wasn’t a divine punishment, as it indiscriminately affected everyone, including the Russians.

Perhaps due to their robust physiques, the Russians didn’t suffer as severely from the plague as the allied forces did. The impact of being unaccustomed to the local environment was also a significant factor.

Along with the plague, dysentery also appeared, but its symptoms were similar enough that the allied forces hadn’t yet distinguished between the two diseases.

At the Russian command center in the Balkan Peninsula, the top brass of the expeditionary force gathered, all looking pale.

General Menshikov asked with great concern, “Are we certain it’s the plague?”

A middle-aged military doctor answered solemnly, “Commander, the news is confirmed. As of now, we have over 5,000 soldiers exhibiting symptoms of vomiting and diarrhea, exceeding the norm for a regular influenza outbreak.”

Before Menshikov could respond, a middle-aged officer added, “Commander, according to the prisoners we’ve captured, a large number of French soldiers in the city are also falling ill.”

Without much hesitation, Menshikov made his decision: “Order the troops to take epidemic prevention measures, but the attack must not stop. Our situation is bad, but it must be worse for the French inside the city.

I will seek help from St. Petersburg regarding the plague and ask for a large number of medical personnel to be sent here. This epidemic could also be an opportunity. I don’t believe the French can hold out much longer!”

On the surface, Menshikov was tense, but deep down, he was relieved. With the outbreak of the plague, the good days for the French were over.

The logic was simple: the greater the population density, the more conducive it was for the spread of the plague. Under such circumstances, the losses inside the city would definitely be greater than those outside.

Considering the current state of the war, how many people had died inside Constantinople? Was it a hundred thousand, two hundred thousand, or even three hundred thousand, four hundred thousand, or more?

Were these bodies dealt with in time? Perhaps the French dealt with most of them, but even if only 1% were overlooked, that would still amount to thousands of unattended corpses. Haven’t the rats in Constantinople grown fatter?

Decomposing bodies and breeding insects are perfect assistants for the spread of viruses. Even without an external virus, Constantinople itself had the potential for a plague outbreak.

……

Vienna

Upon receiving the news of the outbreak of the plague in Constantinople, Franz immediately convened a meeting and instructed the Ministry of Health to oversee the epidemic prevention work.

Although historically this plague had a limited reach, erupting mainly on the Crimean Peninsula, and Austria was only slightly affected but the current situation was different. Since the plague had broken out in Constantinople, could the Balkans be spared? And if the Balkans were affected, wouldn’t Austria be affected as well?

After deploying the epidemic prevention measures, Franz then continued to consider the implications of the plague.

“The outbreak of the plague means that the French won’t be able to hold Constantinople. What do you think will be the next developments in the international situation?”

Metternich reminded, “Your Majesty, from the present situation, the mortality rate of this plague is not too high. If the epidemic is controlled, the French are still capable of holding onto Constantinople.”

Franz laughed and then asked, “Marshal, how long has it been since the Russians cut off Constantinople’s water supply?”

Marshal Radetzky replied, “Your Majesty, it’s been almost sixteen months. However, Constantinople is connected to a port, so they still have an adequate supply of fresh water. There’s no shortage of fresh water in the city right now.”

For geological reasons, Constantinople has no groundwater. Although there are water reservoirs in the city, they are not sufficient to meet the needs of so many people.

Franz shook his head and said, “There are so many people in Constantinople, and the amount of water used daily is not a small number.

Since their water supply has been cut off by the Russians for so long, we can safely assume that the city’s reserve water sources are already depleted.

Now they rely entirely on ships to transport fresh water to meet the needs of hundreds of thousands of people in the city.

The amount of fresh water needed daily for so many people is also not small, requiring a large number of ships to transport it.

How many transport ships are active in Constantinople? How much fresh water can they provide after they have finished transporting various materials?

The British and French bureaucrats will, at most, provide the basic survival water needs of these people. The supply of water for daily use is likely to be limited.

Under normal circumstances, when there is a shortage of fresh water supply, people can tolerate it for a while — not bathing, not washing their faces, not washing their hands.

But the situation has changed. Without an adequate supply of fresh water, how can the French army carry out epidemic prevention? If basic sanitary conditions cannot be improved, how can the spread of the virus be contained?”

Due to the epidemic prevention meeting, everyone had brushed up on their knowledge of epidemic prevention. Some of this information was provided by officials from the Austrian Ministry of Health, while some were supplemented by Franz from his memory.

Now everyone understood the importance of hygiene. At this critical moment in the outbreak, the French troops in the city were a prime target for the virus due to their lack of fresh water.

The Russians outside, even if they were similarly negligent about hygiene, did not lack water. They could still manage to bathe occasionally, right?

As for the French soldiers inside the city, it’s not known how long they had been without such an opportunity, or perhaps they never had it at all.

Whether the French were aware of this issue or not, they were powerless to change it.

The gap was not small. Just to meet basic survival needs, a small basin of water per day was enough. However, to improve sanitary conditions, the amount of water required would have to be multiplied many times over.

Where could they replace so many water transport ships in such a short time?

Tens of thousands of tons of fresh water were needed every day. Felix estimated that only by diverting all the British and French ships in the Mediterranean to this task could they possibly meet their logistical needs.

After some thought, Felix said, “Your Majesty, if the French cannot solve the epidemic problem, we should prepare to mediate in this war. Once the Russians take Constantinople, this war cannot continue.

The Russian finances are already in crisis. If not for the special political significance of Constantinople, they would have probably compromised already.

Now that the Russians have occupied Bulgaria, letting them take Constantinople will make the future even more uncontrollable. It would be better to contain them.”

Metternich disagreed: “Prime Minister, it’s already too late to contain the Russians unless we tear up the Russo-Austrian secret treaty. We must support them in the forthcoming negotiations.

With our diplomatic support, as soon as Constantinople is occupied by the Russians, I don’t believe the British and French will have the power to force the Russian government to relinquish it.

Don’t forget that maintaining the Russo-Austrian alliance is much more important to us at this time than containing Russia. We cannot oppose the Russian annexation of Constantinople.

Since we can’t contain them, why should we be the villain?

It might be better to add fuel to the fire instead, letting the Russians continue to foster hatred from the British and French, deepening the conflict between them.”

“Adding fuel to the fire,” Franz was very interested in this suggestion. To control the Black Sea, it wasn’t enough just to have Constantinople; it was also necessary to control both the Balkan and Anatolian Peninsulas.

Could the Russians continue to fight? That was impossible. Even if the Russian government did everything it could, it could only go as far as Constantinople.

If they pushed the British and French too hard, there might even be a chance of a counter-push. The transportation limitations of the Russian Empire limited their exertion of power.

In the Balkans, even with the support of Austria, the Russians could use at most 70-80% of their national strength. How could they compete with Britain and France?

Right now, the Russians had the upper hand only because Britain and France hadn’t reacted properly, sabotaging each other on the battlefield.

Once the pressure from the Russians became too great, causing the two countries to set aside their differences and cooperate sincerely, the situation on the battlefield would be completely different.

It didn’t matter if the Russians couldn’t take it; Franz also didn’t want the Russian government to control the Black Sea truly.

The Mediterranean is simply too small, not enough for Britain, France, Austria, and Italy to share, leaving no surplus benefits for Russia.

But that doesn’t stop the Russians from having ambitions. After all, by taking Constantinople, they are one step closer to the Mediterranean.

As long as the Russians remain ambitious, they will not be able to compromise with Britain and France. With Britain, France, and Russia in mutual opposition, Austria can remain secure.

That was Bismarck’s historical plan, but then Wilhelm II mishandled the diplomacy and unbelievably allowed France and Russia to form an alliance. Of course, it was a tragedy to be caught in the middle.

“The Austro-Russian alliance must not be compromised. Containing the Russians should be left to Britain and France. As an ally, we absolutely cannot go back on our word and abandon morality!”

Franz made his stance clear. He did not want to send the wrong political signal, leading the upper echelons of the government to mistakenly believe that Austria had already gained what it wanted and could therefore abandon the Russians.

From the perspective of national interest, such betrayal is very normal. Aligning with Britain and France now seems more in line with Austria’s overseas colonial interests.

But when considering strategic security, the situation is different. Compared to the unstable French government and the ambitious, resurgent Kingdom of Prussia, Franz feels that an alliance with Russia is somewhat more reliable.