Holy Roman Empire
Chapter 331: No Other Choice

Watching the major powers stirring up the winds and clouds, the newly crowned King William I of Prussia couldn’t contain himself, or perhaps it’s more accurate to say that the Junker nobility couldn’t contain themselves.

The butterfly effect is powerful. With Austria’s resurgence, the Prussian government realized that their dream of a strong nation was quickly becoming just that — a dream.

A sense of crisis was the driving force behind Prussia’s path to greatness. In the First Schleswig War (Prussian-Danish War), the performance of the Prussian army was not impressive, one might even say it was rubbish.

The call for military reform was loud within the Prussian army, and one of the main leaders behind it was one of Prussia’s three heroes — Albrecht von Roon.

Roon was not well known, but his actions were earth-shattering. Not only did he oversee the reform of the Prussian army, but he also promoted Moltke and propelled Bismarck into the position of Chancellor.

Without him as the talent scout, while Moltke might have had a chance to rise, Bismarck, the enemy of the royal family, would not have had a chance to ascend to power.

General Roon is extremely frustrated right now. Not long ago, he was appointed as Minister of War and Minister of the Navy simultaneously, and now he’s facing a big problem: the domestic calls for colonial expansion are growing louder and louder.

Roon doesn’t know what others think, but he’s adamantly against overseas colonial ventures for one simple reason — lack of funds.

To dispel this unrealistic idea among the populace, he must obtain the support of King William I. However, William I also wanted to seize wealth from overseas colonies to change Prussia’s financial predicament, which complicates matters for Roon.

……

At the government meeting in the Berlin Palace, Prime Minister Franck reiterated the benefits of colonial expansion and proposed the establishment of a Prussian colonial empire.

With Portugal and the Netherlands already possessing vast overseas colonies, it doesn’t seem like a big deal for the Kingdom of Prussia, given its strength, to open up overseas colonies.

Roon objected, saying, “Prime Minister, I understand the importance of opening up colonies, which can provide cheap raw materials and markets for domestic industry, thus alleviating the government’s financial predicament.

However, you seem to have overlooked a crucial issue. Any colonial empire requires a strong navy. With our navy’s limited capabilities, we may struggle to handle even large bands of pirates, let alone establish colonies overseas.”

This is a fact. The mere fact that the Minister of War can also serve as Minister of the Navy indicates how feeble the Prussian navy is. Any country with a significant navy would not allow such a situation.

Prime Minister Franck explained, “The government is prepared to expand the navy. The Kingdom of Prussia needs its own fleet of ironclad warships.”

Roon, with a grim expression, asked, “Where will the military funding come from?”

Franck calmly replied, “Now that the Vienna System has been rebuilt and tensions among nations have eased, the European continent is becoming more stable, and the likelihood of war breaking out is minimal.

In this situation, we do not need to urgently pursue military reforms. The army will make sacrifices for the nation this time, and we’ll endure a few years of hardship.

We can even transfer some soldiers to the Navy to save on military expenses, and the government will replace a way to raise some funds to establish an ironclad fleet.

Once colonies are established and the domestic industrial sector’s raw material and market issues are resolved, and the domestic economy improves, then we can proceed with military reforms.”

To address the rise of Austria and the impact of the rebirth of France, Roon recently proposed specific military reform measures:

Extending the military service period from two years to four years; abolishing the national reserve army; upgrading the equipment of the standing army, with an annual allocation of 17.5 million thalers starting from the next fiscal year.

These measures entail an increase in conscription from 40,000 to 85,000 troops, expanding the army from 102 regiments to 163 regiments, and increasing the peacetime strength from 208,000 to 327,000 troops.

These reforms, more radical than any in history, are primarily driven by the increased military pressure on the Kingdom of Prussia.

Currently, Russia maintains a standing army of 990,000 troops, the New Holy Roman Empire’s standing army is 580,000 troops, and France’s standing army is 500,000 troops.

With three such abnormal neighbors, if they did not expand their military, the Kingdom of Prussia would lose its status as a quasi-great power.

Moreover, it’s well-known that Franz desires to unify Germany, and Napoleon III openly covets the Rhineland. Represented by Roon, the conservative nobility of the Junkers naturally harbors a sense of crisis.

Without expanding the military, the Kingdom of Prussia’s forces amount to less than one-third of any potential adversary. If war were to suddenly erupt, they would be hardly capable of mounting any resistance.

The bourgeoisie, however, holds confidence in the Vienna System. They express concerns about the military expansion:

On one hand, the abolition of the reserve army and the extension of active service undoubtedly weaken their influence within the military;

On the other hand, with 2/3 of officers and 9/10 of instructors being Junkers within this vast army, there lurks a danger: the military might become a tool for the Junkers to oppose parliamentary authority.

Who can guarantee that the weapons they sharpened will be used for their purpose?

Thus, the bourgeoisie liberals, represented by the Progressive Party, utilized the powers granted to the parliament by the 1850 Constitution to negotiate with the government and delay the passage of the military expansion plan.

To avoid the worst-case scenario, capitalists began advocating the benefits of colonial expansion, enticing government officials with promises of development and attempting to weaken the power of the Junker nobility by promoting naval expansion.

Many people have been lured into this trap, with real-life examples right before their eyes. If colonial expansion had no benefits, why would countries like Britain, France, and Austria be engaging in it?

Even Austria’s overseas colonies, which operate at a loss, have been spun by capitalists into profitable ventures through data manipulation. Using a plethora of economic terms, they managed to deceive the Prime Minister and the King, convincing them that Austria’s colonies were only administratively unprofitable.

The Austrian government purportedly achieved profits through currency taxes, gold mining, cheap industrial raw materials, and other tax revenues brought by the market.

This is specifically reflected in the rapid development of the domestic economy and the rapid growth of government annual revenue. Additionally, it comes with the benefits of economic crisis resilience and reduced outflow of gold and silver.

After a mishmash of data, the conclusion was reached: Austria’s colonies bring in a profit of 12 million guilders annually for the Austrian government.

This is no small sum; it’s nearly half of the Kingdom of Prussia’s fiscal revenue. Coupled with a plethora of other benefits, many people have been duped.

In reality, this account is impossible to calculate accurately. Austria’s rapid economic development is indeed contributed to by its colonies. However, the involvement of too many industries and the complexity of economic cycles means that even a slight adjustment can result in astronomical differences in the end.

The reason people believe this is due to the Austrian government’s vigorous efforts in colonial expansion. Judging others by one’s own standards, if there were no profits to be made, they would not be investing so actively.

Including Britain, France, Spain, Prussia, and the Netherlands, capitalists have used these countries as examples to analyze and conclude that the greater the scope of the colonial empire, the stronger the nation; lose the colonies, and the nation will decline.

Listening to it once doesn’t matter, but if various experts are whispering in your ears every day, over time it sinks deep into people’s hearts and becomes a recognized truth.

Roon insisted, “No, the military reform of the army absolutely cannot stop. Just open the map and you’ll see how great the defense pressure we’re facing. If one day we get into conflict with any great power, with Prussia’s current military strength, we simply won’t stand a chance.”

Minister of Finance, Faber Adolf, scoffed, “General, if your expansion plan is based on confronting the three major powers, even if it’s doubled, it’s probably still not enough.

However, Prussia’s financial resources are limited. Even if we were to allocate all our annual income to the military, we still wouldn’t match any of the great powers.

Modern warfare is different from the past. During the Near East War, the Russians had a total force of over two million at one point; during Austria’s campaign for unification, their total mobilized force approached that number too.

The Kingdom of Prussia has only 14 million people, and its human resources have already determined our limit for military expansion. Using the contradictions between countries to maintain the balance of Europe is the most suitable strategy for us.

Perhaps you’re unaware, let me provide you with some economic data, and you’ll understand.

In 1850, Prussia’s annual income was 40.3% of Austria’s, 28.2% of France’s, and 30.3% of Russia’s. By 1854, after Austria established the New Holy Roman Empire, Prussia’s annual income dropped to 31.1% of Austria’s, 27.2% of France’s, and 27.6% of Russia’s. In 1860, Prussia’s annual income further decreased to 20.2% of Austria’s, 21.3% of France’s, and 31.1% of Russia’s.

Because we’ve been allocating a large amount of funds to the military, our economy is almost stagnant. With our annual income at 20.2% of Austria’s, we’ve been spending 43.2% of their military expenses.”

Military expenditure doesn’t just cover the military itself; it also includes supporting the military-industrial complex. Under conscription systems, this entire industrial chain is the most expensive.

Currently, only seven countries in the world have a complete military-industrial complex: Britain, France, Russia, Austria, Prussia, America, and Spain. Among them, France, Austria, and Prussia are at the forefront of army technology.

This is also why the Prussian military industry dominates, as its scale cannot support a second player. To reduce costs, countries are striving to sell military equipment abroad.

Franz even directly exported the military-industrial complex to Russia. Due to financial reasons, to save costs, Russian military-industrial enterprises imported production lines from Austria during the reign of Nicholas I.

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Over the years, the produced equipment has filled the entire army, making it difficult to reverse the situation.

The Kingdom of Prussia was tragic. Because it had too low a reputation in the world, it was difficult to sell weapons, and the military-industrial complex lost its ability to sustain itself. After all, they only sell weaponry, without any political leverage attached.

The era of industrialization is cruel. Due to the lack of markets and cheap industrial raw materials, Prussian capital naturally could not compete with opponents in the process of industrialization and could only defend the domestic market.

The Customs Union, which historically supported the development of the Kingdom of Prussia, had long ceased to exist due to interests.

Even the Russian market was seized by the Austrians due to the deterioration of Prussian-Russian relations.

With so many adverse factors affecting the economy, the outcome naturally is not optimistic. The stagnation of the Prussian economy is therefore not surprising.

Faced with this situation, capitalists seeking to open up overseas colonies to solve the problems of raw materials and markets have become inevitable.

Now that the Prussian government was in a state of desperation, they really had no better choice. If this continued, the Kingdom of Prussia would be directly dragged down.

Looking at the expressions of everyone, Roon hesitated to speak. Although the Kingdom of Prussia was accustomed to militarism, it really could not support it now.

In this era, the military expenditures of various countries are enormous, with percentages ranging from ten to thirty percent being quite normal.

The military expenses of several major powers can even exceed Prussia’s annual revenue. How can they keep up with them?

If it was just a short period of hardship, the government would replace a way to endure it. However, the Kingdom of Prussia’s expansion of the army now had no visible value.

Roon was clear that if they continued to compete, it would not be long before the Kingdom of Prussia fell behind due to financial issues.

In this situation, the only solution is to wage war, annex more territories, and resolve internal conflicts through expansion.

Historically, this is how the Kingdom of Prussia operated, gambling its way forward, unifying the small German territories, and eventually losing the empire.

Unlike Iron Chancellor Bismarck, the ruling Prime Minister Franck was undoubtedly not as radical. He advocated temporarily abandoning the struggle for land power.

After much hesitation, Roon finally spoke up: “Gentlemen, these issues are indeed very troublesome, but let’s not forget to take a look at the map. The Kingdom of Prussia is currently divided, and without a sufficiently strong army, we are at risk of being swallowed up at any moment.

Relying solely on a treaty for our security is very unreliable. The Northern Three Courts System that once safeguarded us is no longer in place. Despite our efforts to repair relations with Russia and Austria, the results have been minimal.

Our attempts to join the Russo-Austrian alliance have been rejected by both countries. There aren’t many reasons for this rejection; it’s simply because we lack the strength to qualify for an alliance with them.

To change this situation, we must expand on the European continent. Otherwise, the Kingdom of Prussia will soon decline and become a small country struggling for survival amidst the great powers.”

William I frowned. He also wanted to expand, but their strength did not allow it. Despite appearances that the Kingdom of Prussia could easily handle any neighbor besides Russia, Austria, and France, in reality, they dared not provoke any of them.

Denmark was Russia’s little brother. The Russian Empire’s prestige was still present, and with the Russo-Austrian alliance on its side, if they weren’t careful, they might not even get a bite of meat and instead invite disaster.

The German Federal Empire was also not to be trifled with. Not only did it have the support of Britain and France, but its economic strength also surpassed that of Prussia. If Prussia mishandled things, these states could easily defect to Austria, leaving Prussia in dire straits.

This was not an impossible scenario. From the perspective of interests, remaining in the German Federal Empire would allow them to preserve their rights to the greatest extent, while joining the New Holy Roman Empire would yield the most benefits. Meanwhile, aligning with Prussia would offer them nothing.

Both the Junkers and the capitalists in Prussia have had a tough time in recent years. Everyone is starving, so who cares about appearances?

As for the Netherlands and Belgium, there’s no doubt that they have a big brother watching over them, and any slight move could have far-reaching consequences.

William I said, “Roon, your ideas are too idealistic. We don’t have the power to ignore the rules yet. If we make any rash moves, we’ll likely face immediate suppression from other countries.

It’s been rumored that the French have been plotting a plan to divide Prussia between Russia, Austria, and France. However, due to conflicting interests among the three countries, the plan hasn’t progressed further.

Right now, the Vienna System is the best choice to ensure Prussia’s safety. If we don’t favor growth during this peaceful period, we’re in real danger if the balance of power in Europe is broken in the future.

The most important thing now is to open up overseas colonies to solve the domestic industrial and commercial needs for raw materials and markets, and to complete industrialization as soon as possible.

Only when our country is strong can the Kingdom of Prussia make further progress in the next upheaval in Europe.”

It’s not just the French who have such a plan, but even the Austrian General Staff might have them, and who knows, maybe even the Russians have similar thoughts.

Roon nodded with a bitter smile. Reality was too harsh, and he didn’t have Bismarck’s eloquence to persuade everyone to unite.

The international situation had already changed; even if Bismarck were to come back to life, there would be no way to replicate the successes of history, and they wouldn’t even have the opportunity to take the first step.